Track record · accuracy audit · Season 2026/27
Do our ratings actually predict?
Every fixture rating we published, checked against what really happened on the pitch. Including the ones we got wrong.
It’s early in the season, so these ratings still lean heavily on last season’s data — the opening gameweeks can be well off. Accuracy settles and becomes more consistent as this season’s results build up.
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Filter by venue
The test — are easy ratings really easier
Average real outcome, by the band we projected
Attacking projections
1
2.3
n=16
2
1.7
n=19
3
0.5
n=13
4
1.5
n=16
5
0.9
n=16
Goals scored by the rated team, per fixture
Clean-sheet projections
1
38%
n=16
2
38%
n=16
3
62%
n=13
4
16%
n=19
5
0%
n=16
Share of fixtures that kept a clean sheet
62%
Ranking accuracy — of any two fixtures, how often the one we rated easier delivered more
2.0 v 1.2
Avg goals: fixtures rated band 1–2 vs band 4–5
38% v 9%
Clean-sheet rate: band 1–2 vs band 4–5
80
Fixtures assessed
across 4 gameweeks
Consistency — accuracy through the season
Ranking accuracy by gameweek
Attack
Clean sheet
Accuracy is lower in the opening gameweeks — with little current-season data, early ratings lean on last seasons baseline and sharpen as real results accumulate. That climb is expected, and we show it rather than hide it.
The receipts — every fixture, projection vs actual
— called correctly
| GW | Fixture | Venue | Proj band | Proj xG | Actual xG | Goals | Goals Call | Proj CS | Clean sheet | CS Call |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GW4 | ARS v SUN | Away | 2 | 1.77 | 1.99 | 2 | ✓ On the money | 1 | Yes | ✓ On the money |
| GW4 | AVL v NFO | Home | 3 | 1.65 | 1.09 | 1 | ✗ Missed | 4 | No — 2 | ✓ On the money |
| GW4 | BHA v COV | Away | 1 | 2.09 | 2.77 | 5 | ✓ On the money | 3 | Yes | ≈ Roughly right |
| GW4 | BOU v BRE | Home | 1 | 2.13 | 2.55 | 2 | ✓ On the money | 1 | No — 2 | ≈ Roughly right |
| GW4 | BRE v BOU | Away | 5 | 1.24 | 0.79 | 2 | ✓ On the money | 5 | No — 2 | ✓ On the money |
| GW4 | CHE v HUL | Home | 1 | 2.13 | 1.21 | 2 | ✗ Missed | 2 | No — 2 | ≈ Roughly right |
| GW4 | COV v BHA | Home | 3 | 1.52 | 1.05 | 0 | ≈ Roughly right | 5 | No — 5 | ✓ On the money |
| GW4 | CRY v IPS | Home | 2 | 1.89 | 0.94 | 2 | ✗ Missed | 4 | No — 3 | ✓ On the money |
| GW4 | EVE v TOT | Away | 4 | 1.28 | 1.60 | 0 | ≈ Roughly right | 3 | Yes | ≈ Roughly right |
| GW4 | FUL v LIV | Away | 4 | 1.40 | 0.92 | 0 | ✓ On the money | 4 | Yes | ✗ Missed |
| GW4 | HUL v CHE | Away | 4 | 1.33 | 1.80 | 2 | ≈ Roughly right | 5 | No — 2 | ✓ On the money |
| GW4 | IPS v CRY | Away | 2 | 1.83 | 2.03 | 3 | ✓ On the money | 4 | No — 2 | ✓ On the money |
| GW4 | LEE v NEW | Home | 4 | 1.45 | 2.29 | 4 | ✗ Missed | 1 | No — 1 | ✓ On the money |
| GW4 | LIV v FUL | Home | 2 | 2.00 | 1.80 | 0 | ✓ On the money | 2 | Yes | ✓ On the money |
| GW4 | MCI v MUN | Away | 1 | 2.39 | 1.14 | 1 | ✗ Missed | 4 | Yes | ✗ Missed |
| GW4 | MUN v MCI | Home | 2 | 1.85 | 0.94 | 0 | ✗ Missed | 5 | No — 1 | ≈ Roughly right |
| GW4 | NEW v LEE | Away | 5 | 1.09 | 0.79 | 1 | ✓ On the money | 2 | No — 4 | ✗ Missed |
| GW4 | NFO v AVL | Away | 2 | 1.86 | 2.79 | 2 | ✓ On the money | 3 | No — 1 | ✓ On the money |
| GW4 | SUN v ARS | Home | 5 | 0.87 | 2.07 | 0 | ✗ Missed | 4 | No — 2 | ✓ On the money |
| GW4 | TOT v EVE | Home | 3 | 1.46 | 0.74 | 0 | ✗ Missed | 2 | Yes | ✓ On the money |
| GW3 | ARS v CHE | Home | 1 | 2.56 | 2.81 | 2 | ✓ On the money | 1 | No — 1 | ✓ On the money |
| GW3 | AVL v HUL | Away | 4 | 1.40 | 1.64 | 0 | ✓ On the money | 3 | Yes | ≈ Roughly right |
| GW3 | BHA v LEE | Home | 2 | 2.13 | 2.22 | 1 | ✓ On the money | 1 | No — 1 | ✓ On the money |
| GW3 | BOU v NEW | Away | 2 | 1.91 | 1.64 | 2 | ≈ Roughly right | 4 | No — 2 | ✓ On the money |
| GW3 | BRE v SUN | Home | 1 | 2.34 | 1.59 | 1 | ✗ Missed | 2 | No — 1 | ✓ On the money |
| GW3 | CHE v ARS | Away | 5 | 0.89 | 0.43 | 1 | ✓ On the money | 5 | No — 2 | ✓ On the money |
| GW3 | COV v MCI | Away | 5 | 0.80 | 1.49 | 0 | ✗ Missed | 5 | No — 1 | ≈ Roughly right |
| GW3 | CRY v FUL | Away | 4 | 1.38 | 2.36 | 3 | ✗ Missed | 4 | No — 2 | ✓ On the money |
| GW3 | EVE v MUN | Home | 4 | 1.27 | 1.06 | 2 | ✓ On the money | 4 | No — 2 | ✓ On the money |
| GW3 | FUL v CRY | Home | 2 | 2.11 | 2.88 | 2 | ✓ On the money | 2 | No — 3 | ✗ Missed |
| GW3 | HUL v AVL | Home | 3 | 1.69 | 0.81 | 0 | ✗ Missed | 2 | Yes | ✓ On the money |
| GW3 | IPS v LIV | Home | 3 | 1.69 | 0.60 | 0 | ✗ Missed | 5 | No — 2 | ✓ On the money |
| GW3 | LEE v BHA | Away | 5 | 0.94 | 2.23 | 1 | ✗ Missed | 4 | No — 1 | ≈ Roughly right |
| GW3 | LIV v IPS | Away | 1 | 2.34 | 0.74 | 2 | ✗ Missed | 3 | Yes | ≈ Roughly right |
| GW3 | MCI v COV | Home | 1 | 3.17 | 2.19 | 1 | ✗ Missed | 1 | Yes | ✓ On the money |
| GW3 | MUN v EVE | Away | 2 | 1.87 | 0.87 | 2 | ✗ Missed | 2 | No — 2 | ≈ Roughly right |
| GW3 | NEW v BOU | Home | 2 | 2.05 | 0.77 | 2 | ✗ Missed | 4 | No — 2 | ✓ On the money |
| GW3 | NFO v TOT | Home | 3 | 1.54 | 0.83 | 0 | ✗ Missed | 1 | Yes | ✓ On the money |
| GW3 | SUN v BRE | Away | 4 | 1.31 | 2.15 | 1 | ✗ Missed | 5 | No — 1 | ≈ Roughly right |
| GW3 | TOT v NFO | Away | 5 | 0.98 | 1.48 | 0 | ✗ Missed | 3 | Yes | ≈ Roughly right |
| GW2 | ARS v AVL | Away | 1 | 2.19 | 1.52 | 1 | ✗ Missed | 2 | Yes | ✓ On the money |
| GW2 | AVL v ARS | Home | 4 | 1.44 | 0.28 | 0 | ✓ On the money | 5 | No — 1 | ≈ Roughly right |
| GW2 | BHA v CHE | Away | 2 | 1.76 | 1.79 | 3 | ✓ On the money | 2 | No — 4 | ✗ Missed |
| GW2 | BOU v EVE | Home | 1 | 2.48 | 2.26 | 1 | ✓ On the money | 1 | No — 1 | ✓ On the money |
| GW2 | BRE v LEE | Away | 5 | 1.02 | 1.61 | 1 | ✗ Missed | 4 | No — 1 | ≈ Roughly right |
| GW2 | CHE v BHA | Home | 4 | 1.37 | 3.83 | 4 | ✗ Missed | 4 | No — 3 | ✓ On the money |
| GW2 | COV v HUL | Home | 3 | 1.64 | 1.18 | 0 | ≈ Roughly right | 3 | No — 1 | ✓ On the money |
| GW2 | CRY v MCI | Home | 4 | 1.24 | 0.93 | 1 | ✓ On the money | 5 | No — 4 | ✓ On the money |
| GW2 | EVE v BOU | Away | 5 | 1.10 | 1.66 | 1 | ✗ Missed | 5 | No — 1 | ≈ Roughly right |
| GW2 | FUL v SUN | Away | 5 | 1.14 | 1.02 | 0 | ✓ On the money | 4 | No — 1 | ≈ Roughly right |
| GW2 | HUL v COV | Away | 3 | 1.59 | 0.46 | 1 | ✗ Missed | 3 | Yes | ≈ Roughly right |
| GW2 | IPS v MUN | Away | 4 | 1.23 | 1.81 | 2 | ✗ Missed | 5 | No — 5 | ✓ On the money |
| GW2 | LEE v BRE | Home | 2 | 2.09 | 1.15 | 1 | ✗ Missed | 1 | No — 1 | ✓ On the money |
| GW2 | LIV v NFO | Home | 1 | 2.65 | 1.28 | 2 | ✗ Missed | 2 | No — 2 | ≈ Roughly right |
| GW2 | MCI v CRY | Away | 1 | 2.49 | 2.57 | 4 | ✓ On the money | 2 | No — 1 | ✓ On the money |
| GW2 | MUN v IPS | Home | 1 | 2.75 | 4.87 | 5 | ✓ On the money | 2 | No — 2 | ≈ Roughly right |
| GW2 | NEW v TOT | Away | 5 | 1.13 | 1.01 | 2 | ✓ On the money | 3 | Yes | ≈ Roughly right |
| GW2 | NFO v LIV | Away | 4 | 1.47 | 2.88 | 2 | ✗ Missed | 5 | No — 2 | ✓ On the money |
| GW2 | SUN v FUL | Home | 2 | 2.01 | 1.56 | 1 | ≈ Roughly right | 1 | Yes | ✓ On the money |
| GW2 | TOT v NEW | Home | 3 | 1.62 | 1.12 | 0 | ≈ Roughly right | 1 | No — 2 | ≈ Roughly right |
| GW1 | ARS v COV | Home | 1 | 2.46 | 1.85 | 3 | ✗ Missed | 1 | Yes | ✓ On the money |
| GW1 | AVL v BHA | Away | 5 | 1.08 | 0.28 | 0 | ✓ On the money | 4 | No — 4 | ✓ On the money |
| GW1 | BHA v AVL | Home | 2 | 1.69 | 4.00 | 4 | ✓ On the money | 1 | Yes | ✓ On the money |
| GW1 | BOU v MCI | Away | 5 | 1.13 | 0.71 | 1 | ✓ On the money | 5 | No — 2 | ✓ On the money |
| GW1 | BRE v TOT | Home | 4 | 1.24 | 4.04 | 3 | ✗ Missed | 2 | Yes | ✓ On the money |
| GW1 | CHE v FUL | Away | 5 | 0.91 | 2.58 | 3 | ✗ Missed | 4 | No — 2 | ✓ On the money |
| GW1 | COV v ARS | Away | 5 | 0.77 | 0.56 | 0 | ✓ On the money | 5 | No — 3 | ✓ On the money |
| GW1 | CRY v EVE | Away | 4 | 1.28 | 2.23 | 0 | ✗ Missed | 4 | No — 2 | ✓ On the money |
| GW1 | EVE v CRY | Home | 2 | 1.63 | 1.45 | 2 | ✓ On the money | 2 | Yes | ✓ On the money |
| GW1 | FUL v CHE | Home | 2 | 1.69 | 1.42 | 2 | ≈ Roughly right | 1 | No — 3 | ✗ Missed |
| GW1 | HUL v MUN | Home | 5 | 1.08 | 1.50 | 2 | ≈ Roughly right | 4 | Yes | ✗ Missed |
| GW1 | IPS v SUN | Home | 3 | 1.43 | 1.58 | 2 | ✓ On the money | 3 | No — 1 | ✓ On the money |
| GW1 | LEE v NFO | Away | 3 | 1.39 | 0.47 | 1 | ✗ Missed | 3 | Yes | ≈ Roughly right |
| GW1 | LIV v NEW | Away | 2 | 1.83 | 3.13 | 2 | ✓ On the money | 5 | No — 2 | ✓ On the money |
| GW1 | MCI v BOU | Home | 1 | 2.41 | 2.47 | 2 | ✓ On the money | 1 | No — 1 | ✓ On the money |
| GW1 | MUN v HUL | Away | 2 | 1.81 | 1.78 | 0 | ✓ On the money | 1 | No — 2 | ≈ Roughly right |
| GW1 | NEW v LIV | Home | 1 | 1.98 | 1.59 | 2 | ≈ Roughly right | 4 | No — 2 | ✓ On the money |
| GW1 | NFO v LEE | Home | 3 | 1.42 | 0.66 | 0 | ✗ Missed | 3 | No — 1 | ✓ On the money |
| GW1 | SUN v IPS | Away | 3 | 1.56 | 1.18 | 1 | ≈ Roughly right | 3 | No — 2 | ≈ Roughly right |
| GW1 | TOT v BRE | Away | 4 | 1.26 | 0.76 | 0 | ✓ On the money | 2 | No — 3 | ✗ Missed |
How we measure this
Projections are expected goals, so we judge them against expected goals first. A single matchs actual goals are noisy — a fixture we projected at 0.9 xG-against can end 3-0 on two deflections without the projection being wrong. Our primary accuracy signal is projected xG versus actual xG; projected xG versus actual goals is shown too as the real-world check, and its naturally noisier over small samples.
What counts as a correct call. For ranking accuracy we take every pair of fixtures and ask whether the one we rated easier actually produced the better outcome. For the band charts, we group fixtures by the band we published and show the average real outcome for each — no cherry-picking, every rated fixture is included.
No look-ahead. Each weeks projection is built only from data available before that week was played, so nothing here benefits from hindsight.
Sample sizes are always shown. Home and away are split because teams — and our accuracy — differ by venue.